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April 30, 2009

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BOSTON STARBUCKS REBEL

I think better fimancial discipline begins in each store.

SBUX Alum Bill

I think Starbucks won a temporary victory in the expectations game. Nothing more. It's true that the SBUX comp store sales of -8% v. Q2FY08 was slightly better than the -9% reported for the previous quarter v. Q1FY08. What isn't mentioned, however, is that:

(1) Q2FY08 was particularly anemic, and thus a lower target to comp against, and
(2) Comps at the stores that remained after store closures should have been higher just because of migration of customers that had previously gone to the stores that were closed.

In light of these other factors, I think an 8% decline in same store sales is actually an indication of continuing decay in the business.

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